Economic Scenario model of sunflower planting structure alternatives under water-saving vs cash-crop priorities in an Uzbek irrigation command area

¹ Department of Economics. National Research University Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
² Tashkent State University of Economics, I. Karimov Str., 49, 100066, Uzbekistan.

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Published online: 13 May 2026

Abstract

Due to rapidly developing irrigation demand, the water allocation needs of the farming community have begun to intensify, leading to an equally significant policy shift in cropping structure and resource prioritization. This study aims to encourage the adoption of analytical model-supported planting structure alternatives in the sunflower production system and provide the empirical basis of evidence regarding the economic scenario trade-offs. The objectives of this study are to examine the interaction between water-saving priorities, cash-crop incentives and profitability, risk exposure of sunflower cultivation and survival probability of farm income in irrigated areas. With this objective in mind, a field-based economic scenario assessment through multi-criteria evaluation with an eight-week survey period was carried out with medium-scale farmers in the districts of Bukhara and Navoi provinces under the supervision of the regional irrigation authority at Bukhara State University, Bukhara, Uzbekistan. Samples from water-saving plots and cash-crop oriented farms were purposively selected in the irrigation command area through the use of analytic hierarchy process of determining relative weights of a given decision criterion. Findings indicated the relative efficiency and economic resilience of sunflower alternatives with emphasis on water productivity, which confirmed the established assumptions of priority weighting analysis (AHP) as well as requirements in the irrigation planning framework. Most importantly, it is hoped that this model would be a reference for a transition in the planting structure towards a more efficient and climate-resilient irrigation strategy for all stakeholders.