EPJ Web Conf.
Volume 254, 2021XII International Conference “Solar-Terrestrial Relations and Physics of Earthquake Precursors”
|Number of page(s)||10|
|Section||Physics of Earthquake Precursors|
|Published online||08 November 2021|
Estimation earthquake occurrence probability in Kamchatka region based on seismological and complex of ionospheric precursors
Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation FEB RAS, Paratunka, Russia
Published online: 8 November 2021
In this paper the authors present the method of estimation of a region, waiting period and probability of strong earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) in Kamchatka region based on the combination of mid-term and short-term predictive signs accompanying earthquake formation. The seismological predictive parameter ξP was taken as a mid-term precursor. It was calculated on the basis of the probabilistic model of seismic regime. A complex of ionospheric parameters was considered as short-term predictive signs with an earthquake waiting period of up to 5 days. It includes the K-layer, the sporadic Es layer of the r type, the critical frequency foF2, and the frequency stratification of the F2 layer. The probabilities of strong earthquakes with KS ≥ 13.5 (M ≥ 6.0) that occurred over the period 2019–2021 in an expected zone, determined by the parameter ξP, were estimated on the basis of Bayes method provided that a complex of anomalous parameters of the ionosphere was identified.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2021
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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