A system dynamics approach to sustainable waste management in a South African city

School of Mechanical, Industrial and Aeronautical Engineering, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Published online: 14 January 2026

Abstract

Waste management in South Africa is significantly affected by rapid population growth, urbanisation, industrialisation, and poor waste management practices. These have impeded the effectiveness of waste reduction, recovery, and recycling. This study employs a systems dynamics approach to provide a cohesive assessment of the core components of South African waste management to evaluate the impact of systemic bottlenecks on its sustainability. The study employed a qualitative system dynamics methodology and focused on a single city. Data were gathered from interviews, record analysis, and observations, and then thematically coded and mapped using causal loop diagramming. The findings revealed several variable interactions that influence the system, for instance, waste segregation, collection system efficiency, informal pickers mobilisation, recovered recyclables, market demand, income and employment opportunities, regulatory compliance, and policy and governance, which were addressed as enablers influencing sustainability. On the contrary, limited infrastructure, dependence on landfills, lack of incentives and punitive schemes, weak policy enforcement, and poor coordination among public and private stakeholders were identified as barriers to achieving sustainable outcomes. The study demonstrates the value of system dynamics in identifying barriers to sustainable waste management and in designing interventions that foster the uptake of sustainable waste practices.