Agricultural Productivity and Food Security Under Climate Change: Empirical Insights from Developing Countries

¹ Laboratory of Economics and Public Policy (LSEPP), Faculty of Economics and Management, Ibn Tofail University, Kénitra, Morocco
² Research Laboratory in Theoretical and Applied Economics (LARETA), Faculty of Economics and Management, Hassan 1th University, Settat, Morocco

^* Corresponding author: Fatima Azdagaz, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Published online: 3 February 2026

Abstract

The research investigates climate-agriculture relationships through Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag modeling which analyzes 20 developing nations during 2000-2020. The National CO₂ emissions function as a combined metric which tracks climate change impacts through temperature shifts and agricultural system limitations due to environmental conditions. The research design includes variance inflation diagnostics together with robustness tests to handle problems that occur because of multicollinearity between variables. The research data shows that emissions create long-term damage to agricultural production while showing strong connections between climate change metrics and food availability problems. The Pooled Mean Group estimation shows that countries maintain stable long-run relationships but their short-term adjustment patterns differ substantially. The emissions-food insecurity linkages in developing economies with high emissions become most evident because these nations face severe climate risks and experience unequal benefits from agricultural production. The duration of climate change effects differs between agricultural systems which produce different crops because of multiple factors which exist between climate and agricultural systems. The research results demonstrate that policy makers need to create unified strategies which will help them reach their climate change reduction targets while improving agricultural output and protecting food production systems.